Announcing – “UNCERTAINTY AND BAYESIAN CALIBRATION IN BUILDING ENERGY MODELING” a discussion led by Dr. Ralph T. Muehleisen, Principal Building Scientist at Argonne National Laboratory on Wednesday May 28th at 6pm at the AIA:Chicago Office.
(35 E. Wacker Dr., Suite 250, Chicago, IL 60601)
//about the event
Modeling the energy use of building is fraught with uncertainty. There is uncertainty in the properties and performance of building assemblies as constructed, uncertainty in the performance of equipment (especially as it degrades), and uncertainty in the sensors that are used in building control. Other important model inputs such as weather, building occupancy, and building equipment use are not only uncertain, but are stochastic in nature. As a result, any prediction of the energy use of a building is almost certainly wrong. A more useful prediction takes all this uncertainty into account and instead predicts an energy use probability distribution use rather than a single number. When trying to model existing buildings, modelers will often adjust the model inputs attempting to match predictions to measured energy use without consideration of the model parameter uncertainty. This seminar will present a systematic way to incorporate uncertainty into energy modeling prediction and introduce the concept of Bayesian calibration to reduce uncertainty and improve model fidelity through comparison to measured energy use.
//about the Key Speaker
Dr. Ralph T Muehleisen is the Principal Building Scientist and Technical Lead of the Building Energy Decision and Technology Research (BEDTR) program in the Decision and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory. Since 2011, Ralph has lead over $2M in research related to various areas of building energy efficiency including building energy model uncertainty, reduced order building energy models, Bayesian calibration of energy models, building/grid integration, and the development of acoustic measurement techniques for building infiltration. Prior to joining Argonne in 2011, Ralph was the director of the Architectural Engineering programs and a full-time faculty member in the Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering at the Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT). Ralph is a licensed Professional Engineer, LEED AP BD+C, an INCE Board Certified Noise Control Engineer, and a Fellow of the Acoustical Society of America.
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